THEME 3

Our marine future

outstanding issues

In consequence of climate change and ever-increasing human pressure, estuaries, seas and oceans are rapidly changing, often at a rate with which humans can hardly keep up. The importance of these environments for human societies makes it urgent that the insights obtained in the functioning of marine systems are efficiently translated into predictions, approaches, scenarios and methods that can help managers and policy makers to ensure optimal and sustainable future use and management of marine ecosystems. To this end, NIOZ research output advances a range of scientific approaches and methods in a wide number of fields.

QUESTION 7

How to assist mitigation and adaptation towards climate change and ensure safety, health, and well-being in urban deltas and coasts?

Deltas and coasts are attractive areas to live in and therefore densely populated. However, they are threatened by a variety of human impacts, sea level rise and climate change at high rates of change. Dealing with these threats requires a solid understanding of the complex interactions between physical, biological and chemical processes and human interventions which often affect critical processes like e.g., rates of subsidence and loss of ecosystem services. NIOZ research targets to improve the management strategies by following a four-step approach to addressing and mitigating these challenges: Observing ecosystem responses – Based on observations from the field and long-term data sets of remote sensing, ecosystem responses to changes and (human) interventions are assessed; a particular integrative class of observers is formed by the shorebirds that connect various Wadden and other marine systems in the course of their annual cycles and connect the marine realm with the fastest changing biota on Earth, the high arctic tundra. The capacity to instrument these birds with microtags enables them to tell us interpretable stories of change. Understanding drivers – Based on a sound experimental methodology and fundamental insights, we develop better understanding of the complex interactions among physical, biological and chemical processes, and human interventions, and how they determine key marine processes such as ecosystem establishment and restoration, and the persistence of ecosystem services. Predicting impacts – Using our arsenal of techniques ranging from evidence-based in situ measurements, via fundamental knowledge combined with well-constrained experiments, to computational modelling techniques, we aim to predict how marine ecosystems will develop under pressure. Examples include human mitigation measures, continued pressure from expanding economic activities, continuing sea level rise, as well as assessing and predicting impacts of loss of ecosystem services in deltas; Optimizing solutions – We aim to contribute to designing a range of techniques to mitigate both ongoing human impacts, improve nature restoration and compensation (e.g. building with nature), provide insights in the growth and applications of marine biomass, and develop modern approaches for food production to ensure human health, safety and well-being, in marine ecosystems.

QUESTION 8

How to forecast and project impacts of human activities on marine systems?

Human activity is now affecting the seas and oceans and their ecosystems on an unprecedented scale. Fundamental NIOZ science will contribute to improving our knowledge of system-resilience and effects, improved environmental management, better understanding impacts of (regional to global) environmental change, and contribute to the development of mitigation pathways. Amongst others, these human impacts include: Blue growth – The EU Blue Growth Agenda targets sustainable use of the marine environment such as aquaculture, fishing, mineral mining, oil and gas extraction and construction of windfarms. Planning for a sustainable future, rather than reacting to problems, requires fundamental knowledge of the functioning of marine systems and the potential (cumulative) impacts of present and future human activities; Sea-level rise and nature-based coastal defense – Regional sea level change poses challenges to coastal safety; we explore the possibilities of ecosystem engineers and ‘building with nature’ options in which natural processes are used to improve coastal protection. Part of this to explore the windows of opportunity of e.g., salt marsh growth and how sea level change affects them. Oceans as a buffer for CO₂ – Probing the dynamic biogeochemical cycles, including relationships with vertical and horizontal exchange processes, changing pelagic food webs, benthic-pelagic coupling, and ecological consequences, through combining gathering field data and modelling. In this context, notably the role of the carbon cycle is central in our research, since it co-determines, and mitigates, the rates of change of atmospheric CO₂.